Mumbai, September 12, 2026: Maharashtra’s sugar industry could face a major production shortfall this season, with sugar output potentially falling below 85 lakh tonnes, according to National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) president Harshvardhan Patil.
The projection is significantly lower than the state government’s current estimate and has raised fresh concerns over sugarcane availability, weather conditions and the outlook for the upcoming crushing season.
Sugar Production Estimates Spark Debate
The latest estimates have exposed a sharp difference between official projections and the expectations of sugar mill representatives.
Government estimates reportedly put Maharashtra’s upcoming sugar production at around 112 lakh tonnes, while millers believe actual production could be below 90 lakh tonnes. Patil’s latest assessment is even more cautious, suggesting that production may not cross 85 lakh tonnes.
The disagreement is largely linked to assessments of the amount of sugarcane available for crushing and the impact of weather-related factors on cane yield and sugar recovery.
Weather Concerns Add to Industry Pressure
Maharashtra is entering the new crushing season amid concerns over rainfall and the possible impact of El Niño conditions.
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has already directed the agriculture department to conduct a fresh assessment of sugarcane availability after questions were raised over the accuracy of existing estimates.
According to the latest government assessment, around 1238.40 lakh tonnes of sugarcane could be available for crushing, with an estimated average sugar recovery of 9.73%. However, sugar industry representatives and millers have questioned whether these projections accurately reflect the situation on the ground.
Crushing Season to Begin on October 15
The Maharashtra government has approved the start of the 2026-27 sugarcane crushing season from October 15.
The decision was taken during a meeting chaired by Chief Minister Fadnavis, where officials discussed sugarcane availability, sugar production, farmer payments, ethanol production and the financial condition of sugar mills.
The government is also considering measures related to sugar prices, ethanol and financial support for the sugar industry.
What Could Lower Production Mean?
A substantial decline in Maharashtra’s sugar production could have implications beyond the state’s sugar mills.
Lower output could put additional pressure on domestic sugar supplies and prices, particularly at a time when India’s overall sugar balance remains tight. The central government has already been monitoring sugar prices and has asked mills to provide regular production and sales data.
For sugarcane farmers, mills and policymakers, the accuracy of the production forecast will therefore be crucial.
Industry Awaits a Clearer Picture
With the crushing season still ahead, the final production figure will depend on actual cane availability, crushing operations and sugar recovery.